General market overview

• The attempted ceasefire has collapsed, with renewed strikes reported in the Middle East. However, energy markets failed to sustain the overnight momentum, and crude oil is trading close to neutral levels.

• The May WASDE report is scheduled for Tuesday and will provide the first outlook for 2026/27 balance sheets. However, market participants may quickly reassess the numbers depending on developments related to China.

• Fertilizer suppliers expect fertilizer prices to remain elevated for several months, with a risk of a prolonged high-cost environment extending into 2027. This continues to support the cost base for the new crop.

Soybean complex

• Soybeans opened higher.

• The key driver for the coming week is the US-China meeting. Its outcome will likely determine the direction of the soybean market, as US exports continue to lag and the market needs a clear demand signal.

• China has again purchased Brazilian soybeans for June-July shipment, meaning South American competition remains active.

• Brazil’s soybean exports reached a record level in April, rising 9.7% year-on-year, while soybean meal exports increased by 13.4% year-on-year. Supply pressure from Brazil across the soybean complex remains strong.

• Argentina’s soybean harvest is almost 35% complete, adding to seasonal supply. In the US, the soybean area affected by drought remains unchanged at 27%, compared with 15% last year.

• The possibility of additional Chinese demand is supporting the market in the short term and reducing the risk of a deeper decline. However, the absence of confirmed purchase commitments after the meeting could create renewed pressure.

• US export sales for the week ending April 30 were reported at 147.4 thousand tonnes of soybeans, 335.7 thousand tonnes of soybean meal, and 954 tonnes of soybean oil.

Summary:

The market is waiting for a signal from the US-China meeting. This will determine whether the current rebound remains short-lived. Without confirmed demand, the risk of pressure after the meeting increases.

Corn

• Corn is trading with limited activity today.

• Crude oil was not as strong this morning as initially expected after the escalation in the Middle East, limiting energy-related support for grains.

• The US corn area affected by drought remains unchanged at 25%, compared with 20% last year.

• Argentina’s corn harvest is 30% complete. Brazilian corn exports in April declined by 50% month-on-month but remained higher year-on-year.

• In the short term, corn direction will depend on energy markets and whether export demand emerges during the current price pullback.

• US export sales for the week ending April 30 reached 1,484.5 thousand tonnes.

Summary:

Fundamentally, corn does not look bearish. However, at this stage of the season, the market is reacting more to energy and export demand. Yesterday’s stronger close keeps a slight advantage on the bullish side.

Wheat

• Wheat is showing limited activity today.

• The Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour, scheduled from Monday to Thursday next week, will be a key indicator of potential HRW wheat yields after months of drought. Weak results could bring support back to the market.

• The US winter wheat area affected by drought increased by 1 percentage point to 70%, more than three times higher than last year’s 22%.

• FAO estimates global wheat production at 2% lower due to margin pressure, especially among financially weaker farms.

• If HRW drought damage is confirmed to be more severe, Kansas City wheat could regain leadership and pull Chicago wheat higher.

• US export sales for the week ending April 30 were reported at 266.3 thousand tonnes.

Summary:

The market is currently under pressure from spreads and easing concerns over cold weather. However, the Kansas crop tour and next week’s WASDE report could quickly restore support if HRW yield losses are confirmed.